Delusion that is…..Contd.

So, why this rather strange title to go for this blog ? After all, what is so delusory about the Brazilians ? Aren’t they the innocent group of individuals who believe in the philosophy of ‘Joga Bonito?’ It is this issue of perceptions that I would like to deal with in this post. Personally, I am not one who used to believe in using stats and numbers to my advantage. I was at best a very hesitant follower of history, something my quizzing credentials would not quite stand testimony to. In fact, I loathed statistics and believed it was a creation of the media to bore people. This was until I got across this book, Freakonomics by a ‘mad’ economist as Stephen .D. Levitt describes himself. A book that I would instantly recommend to everybody, Stephen did a damn good job of convincing me about the power of statistics and numbers. From someone who had the ‘bikini’ approach (as the MP Sardar would put it) towards numbers, I have started believing in using Levitt’s simple philosophy of asking the most ridiculous questions to challenge the age-old perceptions. If Levitt could ask whether a gun is actually more dangerous than a swimming pool or whether money does win elections as is perception and prove them to be convincingly wrong; surely there is scope for this question to put forward: ‘Are Brazil an attacking side after all ?’ In retrospective, are Brazil not the most boring side to play the game over the last decade ?

It would be only fair to say that till the 1980’s Brazil played some of the most dazzling football that this world has seen. With attacking talent that may never be matched let alone surpassed BrazilBrazil’s reputation has more to do with heritage than reason- Levitt’s theory of perception to fulfill our beliefs exemplified here. used to put it across teams with consummate ease. But come 1990, it is evident that

For sake of comparison, let us put in the Azzuri and the Nazis (oops 50$ down the drain)- perceived to be the two most boring sides in football with tactics based more on strength and unity than technicality and flair. Brazil came to the 90’ WC with what is widely accepted as its worst side in modern times- another of those conspiracy theories for they said that about their teams in ’94,’98 and’02. This is a classical case of ‘conventional wisdom’ and perception not quite in collusion as John Kenneth Galbraith would put it for if you were the worst side, how could you be the most entertaining one? And mind you, in all these tournaments Brazil were considered dodgy because of their leak proof defence; not due to absence of thrust in the attacking half.

Put in arguably the easiest group in’90 along with Costa Rica, Sweden and the Scots, Brazil managed to tally just 4 goals despite the attacking talent of Careca and having Romario and Bebeto in the wings. Managing to score just four goals and conceding 1 Brazil, surprisingly topped the group but were unsurprisingly put out in the next round by a Claudio Cannigia inspired Argentina 0-1. West Germany meanwhile scored 12 conceding 3 whereas Italy scored 6 conceding none in the same number of matches. Yes, Brazil conceded more number of goals against Italy but if you score 4 goals in 4 matches, it doesn’t necessarily take a great mathematician to figure out that your probability of qualifying isn’t all that great.

Fast forward to ’94, Brazil possessed great attacking strength in the form of firing players like Bebeto, Romario and Zinha. Brazil lived up to its billing in the group stages scoring 6 and conceding 1 in the group stages to finish top of the group. Germany and Italy had 5-3 and 2-2 records respectively at the same stage. At the end of the tournament, Brazil had a 11-3 record from 7 matches including the goalless final they won on penalties; Italy after their disappointing start recovered to finish with a 10-5 record in the same number of matches; Germany went out in the quarters with a 9-7 record. More number of goals in more matches is no surprise but just one more than Italy and an average of just more than 1.5 goals per game doesn’t befit the most ‘attacking’ side in the world. To illustrate the point further, in the knockout stages when it becomes considerably more difficult to score because of more quality opposition, Brazil managed to score just 5 times to Italy’s 6.

Now to ’98 when Ronaldo and Rivaldo graced the WC stage for the first time joining the still potent Bebeto alongside the ‘magic’ Denilson. Brazil just managed to net 6 times during the group stages conceding 3. Spain, Italy, France and the Dutch managed to score more goals with Germany notching 6 as well. However, by the end of the tournament, the supposedly misfiring stars had managed to gather a head of steam to score an impressive 14 goals in all but their defence couldn’t sustain pressure from the Les Blues as they succumbed 0-3 in the finals; their defence was breached 10 times in all in the finals. France finished with 15 goals. Italy and Germany found goals difficult to come by in the later stages and went out in the quarterfinal stages tallying 8 goals in all. Brazil averaged 2 goals per match but their opposition along the way comprised Chile and Denmark- 2 teams that haven’t qualified since.

Finally to ’02 when all the speculation was surrounding Ronaldo who after the mystery final in ’98, was making an appearance in a WC after a season plagued by injury. Brazil finished with an impressive 11 goals- the same tally as Germany. Brazil managed to add a further 7 goals en route to the final to Germany’s 3. 18 goals in 7 matches is truly impressive but again this was a World Cup which was mired in medioicrity and opposition like Costa Rica, China and Belgium are not the top of everyone’s list as far as contenders are concerned. Their defence was the stingiest in the competition conceding just 4 times- the same as Germany. Italy, for the stake of statistics scored 5 times to go out in the round of 16.

’06, Germany has been similar in the sense that they have progressively got better scoring 7 goals in all ( as of now) in the group stages conceding just once. Germany have scored 8 times whereas Italy have managed five. Robinho and Adriano have joined ranks as Brazil are playing with their most attacking combination taking the past decade into consideration.

So, where does this leave us with? The tally, skeptics might argue is certainly impressive. It certainly is. But the point that has been missed is that Brazil, in all these competitions has possessed one of the better defensive records, if not the best. The conclusion that has to be drawn and one which was concurred to by their current coach, Carlos Alberto Parreira is that Brazil are a counter attacking side whose game is based on a strong defensive foundation. Surprise, Surprise! And that for a side with a very suspect defence. Their record at every tournament, defensively has been better than Italy and Germany despite having put up greater numbers in the matches column. They play with an attacking formation, but in essence their game is based on the quality of their defensive midfielders. Dunga, Emerson and Gilberto Silva are all unsung heroes but are amongst the best in the tournament. There might be a line of thought that an attacking side might not always be best represented in the goals column if they are not the most efficient. But, here we are talking about the likes of Ronaldo, Romario, Adriano and Rivaldo- amongst the best in the business year in and year out for their clubs. Another argument can of course be that Brazil’s attacking prowess might force coaches into playing defensive formations thus negating their own attacking game, thus accounting for Brazil’s defensive record. Roberto Carlos, Cafu and Lucio have stayed on in the team for years but Brazilian forwards but for Ronaldo have been like revolving doors- their longevity always in question. Thus, opposition coaches too seem to be sucked into the great whirlpool of perception for if Brazil are a counter attacking side, it means that they are not likely to be in possession of the ball for long and you rather well do something about it. Averaging way under 2 goals a game, Brazil are nowhere near the attacking side they once were. They have got a bunch of individuals with great pace and positional sense which makes them deadly as a counter attacking team.

It is this same aura of invincibility surrounding their defence that seems to be existing within the team that I believe will prove to be the undoing of the Samba boys. Cafu and Robert Carlos are not in the same league anymore and Brazil would be better served by the likes of Cicinho and Silvinho. Emerson looks a spent force in the defensive midfield position and the omission of the immense Gilberto Silva cannot be overlooked. But there seems to be a false sense of aura which I believe could make Brazilian meet their waterloo at the hands of the technical and speedy Ghana side provided they manage to keep their tempers in control. What good are a counter attacking side if they are dominated offensively and not given the ball. Brazil would then be reduced to a bunch of tricksters without getting anywhere. As Levitt would say ‘conventional wisdom’ and ‘perception’ can be both proved wrong.